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San Francisco Real Estate Trends: 2026 Market Analysis & Projections

May 29, 2026

San Francisco real estate trends entering 2026 show clear patterns of rising prices, constrained inventory, and AI-driven demand. Our team conducted market data research through February 2026, covering single-family homes, condos, and luxury properties across the city's most sought-after neighborhoods. With mortgage rates stabilizing near 6%, AI sector growth continuing, and inventory at historically low levels, the market is displaying distinct dynamics in pricing, supply constraints, and buyer behavior as we move deeper into 2026.

San Francisco Real Estate Trends: Home Price Performance by Property Type

San Francisco Median Sale Prices by Property Type (2025-2026)

Property Type 2025 Annual Median YoY Change Early 2026 Outlook
Single-Family Homes $1,700,801 +4.7% Continued strength
Condos (Citywide) $1,150,000 +2.2% Strong recovery
Luxury Homes ($5M+) 135 sales +23% volume Record demand
Sale-to-List Ratio (Houses) 113.4% +1.9 pts Intense overbidding

Alt Text: Table showing San Francisco real estate trends in median sale prices by property type, 2025-2026

Key Insights:

  • Single-family home prices closed out 2025 at an annual median of  $1,700,801, marking a 4.7% year-over-year gain. The market has entered 2026 with continued momentum driven by AI-driven wealth creation in Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, and the surrounding neighborhoods.[5]
  • House buyers paid 113.4% of asking price on average in 2025, with approximately 75% of house sales closing above list price, indicating fierce competition that is expected to intensify in spring 2026.[4][5]
  • The luxury segment ($5M+) is up ~23% YoY from 2024, positioning the 2026 market for a competitive spring selling season.[5]

Neighborhood-Specific Price Performance

San Francisco Neighborhood Median Sale Prices (2025 Annual Data)

Neighborhood Single-Family Median Condo Median % of List (Houses) Avg Days on Market
Pacific/Presidio Heights $7,300,000 $1,774,063 101.2% 13
Marina/Cow Hollow $4,350,000 $1,841,500 100.1% 13
Russian Hill $3,474,500 $1,325,000 101.9% 13
Cole Valley/Haight $3,382,500 $1,405,000 111.4% 13
Castro/Duboce Triangle $2,800,000 $1,407,000 112.8% 13
Noe Valley $2,651,000 $1,395,000 111.9% 13
Richmond/Lake Street $2,114,440 $1,260,000 116.1% 13
Bernal Heights/Glen Park $1,705,000 $987,500 114.2% 13

Alt Text: Table showing San Francisco neighborhood median home sale prices and days on market by location, 2025

Key Insights:

  • Single-family homes in San Francisco sold in an average of 13 days in 2025, down from 14 in 2024, with homes entering 2026 facing even more competitive conditions as spring selling season approaches.[5]
  • Premium neighborhoods like Pacific/Presidio Heights, Marina/Cow Hollow, and Russian Hill maintained their high-value positioning throughout 2025, with Pacific/Presidio Heights reaching new all-time price peaks.[5]
  • Neighborhoods showing the strongest overbidding include Sunset (123.4% of list), Mission (116.8%), and Richmond/Lake Street (116.1%), reflecting sustained buyer urgency across diverse price points.[5]

San Francisco Inventory Dynamics and Market Velocity

San Francisco Housing Supply Metrics (December 2025-Early 2026)

Metric December 2025 December 2024 Change 2026 Spring Outlook
Single-Family Inventory 77 homes 85 homes -9.4% Expected seasonal increase
Condo Inventory 239 units 390 units -38.7% Tight supply continues
Avg Days on Market (Houses) 13 days 14 days -7.1% Rapid velocity
Avg Days on Market (Condos) 28 days 33 days -15.2% Improving pace
% Sold Over List (Houses) 75.4% 72.5% +2.9 pts Strong seller leverage
Months Supply (Houses) 0.5 months ~2.0 months -75% Deep seller's market

Alt Text: Table showing San Francisco housing inventory metrics comparing December 2025 to December 2024

Key Insights:

  • San Francisco entered 2026 with just 77 single-family homes listed for sale on the last day of 2025, representing one of the tightest inventory environments in years and setting the stage for highly competitive spring conditions.[5]
  • With just half a month of single-family home inventory and 1.2 months of condo inventory, San Francisco has become a deeply entrenched seller's market entering 2026, with no indication conditions will ease for buyers soon.[1]
  • The December 2025 pending ratio reached its highest level since spring 2022, with contract activity surging 4.1% year-over-year for houses and 10.3% for condos, signaling robust demand heading into 2026.[4][5]

Financial Conditions and Buyer Behavior

Mortgage Rates and San Francisco Market Activity (2025-2026)

Period 30-Year Mortgage Rate Notable Trend Sale-to-List Ratio (Houses) Stock Market (S&P 500)
Q1 2025 6.85-7.00% Early year peak ~102-105% ~5,600-5,800
Q2 2025 6.65-6.85% Gradual decline ~106-108% ~6,000-6,100
Q3 2025 6.40-6.65% Accelerating ~110-112% ~6,500-6,700
Q4 2025 6.15-6.45% Year-end low 113.4% avg ~6,800-6,850
Early 2026 6.11% 2-year low Continued strength 6,979

Alt Text: Table showing mortgage rates and San Francisco housing market activity by quarter, 2025-2026

Key Insights:

  • Mortgage rates declined steadily throughout 2025, averaging 6.11% as of February 5, 2026 (down from 6.89% one year prior), representing a 78 basis point improvement that has catalyzed buyer re-engagement.[2][5]
  • Single-family home sales increased 6.2% year-over-year in 2025, while condo sales climbed 11.4%, with both segments showing strong momentum entering the 2026 spring season.[5]
  • The S&P 500 reached 6,979 on February 10, 2026, continuing its strong performance from late 2024 and early 2025, creating substantial wealth effects that particularly benefit San Francisco's tech-heavy buyer demographic.[6]

Ownership Tenure and Market Structure Trends

San Francisco Sales Volume and Market Structure (2024-2026)

Metric 2024 2025 YoY Change 2026 Outlook/Insights
Single-Family Sales 2,161 2,296 +6.2% Growing momentum
Condo/TIC/Co-op Sales 2,329 2,594 +11.4% Strongest recovery
Luxury Sales ($5M+) ~110 135 +23% AI boom effect
Properties Went Into Contract 2,171 2,261 +4.1% Strong demand signal

Alt Text: Table showing San Francisco home sales volume by property type, comparing 2024 to 2025

Key Insights:

  • San Francisco's 2025 housing market was largely driven by wealth creation in the AI sector. Venture capital investment in Bay Area AI companies surged throughout the year, creating high-paying jobs, large signing bonuses, and meaningful pre-IPO liquidity for employees.[5]
  • The condo market delivered the strongest turnaround of 2025, with sales climbing 11.4%, contracts rising 10.3%, and median days on market falling to 28, restoring momentum to a market segment that had struggled in prior years.[5]
  • With faster sales cycles, rising prices, and renewed strength across both houses and condos, San Francisco's market appears well-positioned for a very active and competitive spring selling season, particularly as mortgage rates remain near multi-year lows.[4][5]

Requesting a Copy of This Report

Current San Francisco real estate trends point to continued market momentum, characterized by rising prices, historically tight inventory, and strong luxury market activity driven by AI sector growth and favorable equity markets. Buyers face intense competition, but benefit from improved mortgage rate conditions approaching their lowest levels since early 2022.

For personalized guidance on navigating the market, or to request a PDF copy of this report with additional neighborhood data, contact our team here.

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Sources

[1] Kinoko Real Estate. "San Francisco Real Estate Market Report." January 2026. https://kinokorealestate.com/blog/san-francisco-real-estate-january-2026-market-report

[2] Realtor.com Research. "January 2026 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report." February 2026. https://www.realtor.com/research/January-2026-data/

[3] Drymalski, Helena. "San Francisco Market Report." Helena 7x7, January 2026. https://www.helena7x7.com/2026-january-market-report-infographic/

[4] Timberlake, Sean. "January 2026 Market Report." Prism Group, January 2026. https://www.prism-re.com/blog/january-2026-market-report

[5] Vanguard Properties. "San Francisco Market Update: 2025 Year in Review." January 2026. https://vanguardpropertiesagenda.com/newsletter/SF_Market_Update_January_2026.pdf